Tropical Storm Marie, churning roughly 1,500 miles south-southeast of San Diego as of Monday, Aug. 31, could send large surf and coastal flooding to Encinitas beaches over Labor Day weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the system Invest 95-E before it strengthened into a tropical storm Tuesday, Sept. 1. The NHC forecast Marie to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday, Sept. 2, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The storm's path remains highly uncertain. The National Weather Service (NWS) said a westerly track that would carry the storm out to sea is more likely, while a northern route toward San Diego and Los Angeles is less likely, according to KPBS. Fewer than 5% of the NWS San Diego office's weather model solutions support direct effects from a decaying tropical cyclone reaching the region, USA Today reported.

Even if Marie tracks west, NWS meteorologists said tropical swells could still reach the coast. The swells could arrive Saturday, Sept. 5, or Sunday, Sept. 6, coinciding with astronomical high tides of 6.2 to 6.5 feet, according to KPBS. The NWS said wave heights will depend on the storm's track, but tropical moisture may still funnel into the area over Labor Day weekend even with a more distant path.

Kristan Lund, a meteorologist with the NWS office in Oxnard, told the Los Angeles Times there is increasing confidence in moderate-to-large surf from a south swell starting as early as Friday, Sept. 4. Lund said coastal flooding is possible because above-normal tides will coincide with the swell, especially along south-facing shores. Encinitas's Moonlight Beach and Swami's face south, placing them squarely in that risk zone.

Sebastian Westerink, a meteorologist with NWS San Diego, said even if the storm heads north, cooler ocean temperatures off Southern California would weaken it well before arrival. "By the time this storm reaches Southern California, it will very likely be below hurricane status and even tropical storm status," Westerink told the Los Angeles Times.

No hurricane has ever made a direct landfall on the California coast in modern records kept by the NHC. The last tropical storm to make landfall in California was in 1939.

The remnants of Hurricane Hilary delivered historic flooding to Los Angeles and San Diego in August 2023, causing roughly $900 million in damage nationwide.

The NWS Los Angeles office said the highest risks right now are large waves and strong rip currents, with a threat of coastal flooding near times of high tides.

No local advisories have been issued. No beach safety warnings or closures specific to Encinitas had been announced as of Tuesday, Sept. 1. Residents can monitor conditions at weather.gov/sgx and nhc.noaa.gov.