A North Pacific storm could drench San Diego County on Halloween night, the National Weather Service warned Monday, Oct. 26, raising concerns for Encinitas trick-or-treaters and a coastline already battered by high tides.
The storm is forecast to arrive Saturday, Oct. 31, and intensify through Sunday, Nov. 1, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune, which first reported the forecast. The threat is separate from a Coastal Flood Warning already in effect through Thursday, Oct. 29, for San Diego County's coastline.
"It looks like the storm will dive really far south and tap into some tropical moisture," weather service forecaster Paul Steward told the Union-Tribune. "We might get an inch of rain. But we have to see what the next models say about this."
The NWS San Diego forecast discussion issued Monday put the chance of 1 inch or more of rainfall from Saturday morning through Sunday night at greater than 40% for the coast to the mountains. For San Diego County's mountains, the probability rises to 50% to 60%. The chance of 2 inches or more sits at 25% to 35% for coastal and mountain areas.
A subtropical jet stream could transport moisture from the central and eastern Pacific into far southern California around late Saturday into Sunday, the weather service said. Precipitable water values could reach 200% to 250% of normal Saturday afternoon and evening.
Strong, gusty winds are also expected late Saturday through Sunday.
The storm would compound problems along a coastline already under stress. A Coastal Flood Warning posted on Alert San Diego warns of significant flooding, road closures and shoreline erosion through Oct. 29. Morning high tides could reach 1 to 1.7 feet above predicted levels, possibly topping 8 feet, with the peak expected Tuesday, Oct. 27, according to the weather service.
Several beaches have already suffered major erosion, the Union-Tribune reported, singling out Tamarack State Beach. Bluff-top homes in Encinitas and Solana Beach have been fighting erosion for years, and this winter's storms could bring new hazards for those properties, the Union-Tribune reported in an Oct. 17 analysis.
Encinitas has been preparing for a rough season. Deputy City Manager Mike James outlined the city's storm response plan at a Sept. 23 City Council meeting, including drainage improvements, infrastructure inspections and emergency response coordination, the North Coast Current reported. The city's Fire Department is preparing for potential water rescues, and coastal management efforts include beach monitoring and erosion prevention.
City officials have encouraged residents to register for Alert San Diego notifications, assemble emergency supply kits, secure outdoor items and inspect gutters and roofs. San Diego County has also launched an El Niño information hub on AlertSanDiego.org with preparedness guidance, sandbag locations and real-time weather data, CBS 8 reported.
San Diego has received 1.54 inches of rain since Oct. 1, already 1.19 inches above average, the Union-Tribune reported. The next round of forecast models will determine whether the Halloween storm delivers on its early threat.
